Movie Poster Market - how big is it & how much money is spent by collectors?
from a discussion in another thread (on APF), I made a comment how auction prices
are hardly the totality of the market and are in actuality, only a
slice of the total amounts spent on retail sites, retail stores, ebay
BIN listings, Amazon, Allposters, Moviegoods, conventions, flea markets
and all the other attendant places where movie posters of any kind are
sold. I guess all the Mondo and "art print publishers" need to be
combined as well.
How many more millions than the 13million done by the 2 main auction sites is done in the retail market??
well, I've spoken to some of my friends who do major retail sales and other folks "in the know" and I believe I have a reasonable consensus that the retail market of movie posters is at least 2-3 times as large as the auction markets and could be as much as 4-6 times the size. (and I haven't been able to consider the full international market which could increase that number considerably)
simply said, there 2 online/mail order retailers who achieve almost $1,000,000 in annual sales that I know of and there may be 2 more who I'm thinking of.
eBay sales in the movie category are some millions, most of which are BIN and not auction sales, though even with the auction sales most are at a "list price" as there are few real auctions taking place on eBay. I know a number of people who do very well on Amazon. I know several stores that make pretty good sales (mostly in the L.A. area).
from my conversations, my estimates are that the market from dealers selling from the USA is easily $40m and could range as high as $60m
going further, estimates of the amount of material sold at the 2 main auctions that go to dealers is upwards of 50%.
That's right, 50% or more of what these 2 houses sell goes to dealers, most of which is material put out at a retail price and resold for small or large profits over the auction sales of those same items.
why is this important? very simply said, for some strange reason there is a population of vocal collectors who seem to believe that the auction market IS the market and that prices achieved in that format ARE the real values of the posters being sold. The belief that auction prices is the market is therefore, wrong!
Never mind that the poster being sold for $198 in one auction has been quietly purchased by a dealer, relisted at $500 and sold at that price or that when I bought a lobby card set for $200 in one auction and resold the cards for $580 myself.
the retail market for movie posters is much greater than that of the auction market. Period
How many more millions than the 13million done by the 2 main auction sites is done in the retail market??
well, I've spoken to some of my friends who do major retail sales and other folks "in the know" and I believe I have a reasonable consensus that the retail market of movie posters is at least 2-3 times as large as the auction markets and could be as much as 4-6 times the size. (and I haven't been able to consider the full international market which could increase that number considerably)
simply said, there 2 online/mail order retailers who achieve almost $1,000,000 in annual sales that I know of and there may be 2 more who I'm thinking of.
eBay sales in the movie category are some millions, most of which are BIN and not auction sales, though even with the auction sales most are at a "list price" as there are few real auctions taking place on eBay. I know a number of people who do very well on Amazon. I know several stores that make pretty good sales (mostly in the L.A. area).
from my conversations, my estimates are that the market from dealers selling from the USA is easily $40m and could range as high as $60m
going further, estimates of the amount of material sold at the 2 main auctions that go to dealers is upwards of 50%.
That's right, 50% or more of what these 2 houses sell goes to dealers, most of which is material put out at a retail price and resold for small or large profits over the auction sales of those same items.
why is this important? very simply said, for some strange reason there is a population of vocal collectors who seem to believe that the auction market IS the market and that prices achieved in that format ARE the real values of the posters being sold. The belief that auction prices is the market is therefore, wrong!
Never mind that the poster being sold for $198 in one auction has been quietly purchased by a dealer, relisted at $500 and sold at that price or that when I bought a lobby card set for $200 in one auction and resold the cards for $580 myself.
the retail market for movie posters is much greater than that of the auction market. Period
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it's like people who only listen to Fox News.. they hear it often enough, and they believe it no matter how false it is..
Your own numbers show how easy it is to get there and I am talking about every movie poster selling outlet from ebay to conventions to mail order (non-ebay) Amazon and on and on. It even includes movie poster sales from companies like Movie Goods and All Posters
keep in mind, if the sales of all others are 3 times the size of the two auctions, that's still only $50m in annual sales aggregate and I haven't been able to get a handle on non-US business.
it would not surprise me if total sales annually across the spectrum are $100m, but I would be surprised if they are more
compare that to comic books
newsstand (meaning comics stores) sales of new comics alone just passed $870 for fiscal year 2014
in discussion with some of the top comic businesses, we estimate the whole market at $2b
in comics, Heritage does $50m+
There is no doubt that auction prices are just a guide. You only have to look at price fluctuations for the same poster that has been auctioned a number of times over the years. There can be a huge difference in the prices achieved - some very low and some over the top.
There are also many examples where dealers sell posters cheaply just to move stock, to try out auctions at low starting bids or to draw in other bidders.
I recently auctioned off a load of one sheets with a 2.99 starting bid. Some sold for 2.99 which was way undervalue and a couple surprised me and sold way over what I would consider the realistic price. Ultimately, I just wanted to move some stock so it worked out OK but there is no way anyone could say that the selling prices reflected the true value of the posters.
Another huge factor in determining the price is condition. People will often look through auction results and see that a poster sold for a certain price and therefore that must be its value but they often don't take condition into account. Take the Day the Earth Stood Still 3 sheet that was talked about in a thread on this board. The one that was up for sale was in very poor shape and I think the general consensus was that it was worth well under 500.00 in its present condition. If a poster for the same title turned up in very fine condition it would be worth $5000.00 plus.
The venue for the auction is also important. Country specific posters often sell way under market value because they are listed on the wrong site.
in a business without a price guide, when an item sells for $5 in one venue and another for $50 it is reflective of their clientele and of their methods of business. Both prices are right for the venue they were sold in and therefore you have to consider what is the proper venue.
However there is also additional input: if the venue that is selling the poster at $5 is selling it to someone who is reselling it for $50, clearly the $5 venue is just a closeout venue and possibly not the best place for selling your wares. Auctions in particular are closeout houses . "This item must sell today" and the price reflects that you are not actively seeking an adequate buyer at full price or even half price. (though this may vary. it would be hard to call Heritage a closeout house though their auctions do contain numerous bargain priced items)
So how did you do that search on ebay? Was it for ebay Australia or ebay.com or all of the different ebay sites? How did you get results for a specific date? What about all the repros and autographs, etc that are mixed in with the results?
while most of them probably make in the under $20k range annually, there are also many who make 100k, 200k, 300k
AllPosters & MovieGoods (and similar) sell tons of original posters in amongst their repros (and realistically, if you're measuring $ even repros count)
Mondo, Alama etc.. the different varieties of publishers sells millions of dollars annually
comic stores that sell posters (there are lots of them), flea markets, conventions
there are so many different pieces to the puzzle
$50,000,000 is nothing and easily achievable across the spectrum.. but even still, it is one of the smallest collectors markets there is
values.. again, if one guy gets $5 and another $50, they can both be correct - in their individual market.
the question is which is it better to be associated with and which is a better reflection of the broader market.
If for instance 10 copies sell for $5 and 10 sell for $50 in a diff venue, which is correct?
well, what if the 10 that sold for $50 in one venue were the same 10 that sold for $5 in the other venue? That's a more telling data point that explains clearly the $5 sale is a market limitation for the venue marketer who cannot or does not wish to seek the other (retail) market.
I know many people who's main income source is movie posters, though at our respective ages many of the group will have other investments, get social security, annuities.. However I count my poster selling as 2 things - individual to my business as a whole (meaning I count my poster sales separate from comics sales) and I also count it as a part to the whole as a subsidiary
I can say however that the vast majority of people who sell posters do not sell comics or other hobbies, so it is their sole collectibles income.
then again, whether someone is making a living by selling posters is not really a tangent to the amount of dollars achieved in sales.
Maybe a guy sells a $500 poster and never has another poster to sell, but it still counts as a $500 sale (this would be an ebay seller for instance)
why do "I" care? well it's about the Poster Price Police. People who generally can't afford to collect good stuff but always seem to know what the values are for stuff they can't buy or stuff they want to buy and wish to keep the prices down for selfish reasons.
for instance, on APF 3 weeks ago, a newbie joins and engages right away, explaining he's a newbie.. you know everyone is "hey have fun, welcome, cool etc etc". 3 days later he buys some stuff for well over the "auction market" and as if they don't recall he was there 3 days earlier, they totally savaged this guy for overpaying (in their opinions). I remark he was "here, chatting last week" and of course everyone does a 180 or at least a 90.. Of course, the guy hasn't posted to the group again, and the people are always remarking "why don't we have more members".
the PPP ran the guy into the ground and then will wonder "where is xxxxx".. The market is a broad field, much more than what 1 or 2 venues sell and it is good to recognize this, or the PPP will continue to drive people away.
Charlie, you have completely missed nearly every point. It isn't any single issue - it is the totality of all issues combined. I have no idea why you would focus one just a small sliver and believe that's the point and you also completely missed the point I was making about pokerplayr.
go back to start and read everything over......
Rich, "good stuff" has different meanings to each of us. There's a lot of stuff I can't afford, but I wouldn't call it "good stuff" even being drunk...